Casting the eye back over the economic affairs of the past four years it is not difficult to deduce that Ireland was in a state of financial, and at times political, ruin. Hidden loans, resignations and the so-called ‘Golden Circle’ became Dublin’s public face, and the country plunged into the crisis of depression. A whacking great bailout followed and the once mighty Tiger was left in the shadows to lick its wounds.
But as with a forest regenerated by the results of a fire,
Ireland has begun to attract interest again and there is considerable economic
gain to be made by any nation who deploys an economic partnership with the
country. Ripe for the picking, Ireland
is a blank emerald canvas complete with a willing workforce and a modern
infrastructure. The land is fertile again.
Who to plant it? Certainly not Europe, with its unsteady
financial relations with Ireland still very much a problem, or a United Kingdom
struggling to keep itself together economically as well as geo-politically. No,
the new suitor must be from further afield, somewhere not fuddled by years of
nitty-gritty, and outside Western Europe,
things are certainly rosier. Bill Clinton for one is leading the charge in the
States, encouraging widespread investment in the Republic, pointing to Google
and Paypal as pioneering examples. Clinton’s
calling has certainly been gathering momentum and tangible progress has been
made, with US companies
being behind almost 40 per cent of offices bought or leased in Dublin last year. But America has been hit
hard by the recession and needs to baton down the hatches during the expected
uncertainty of an election year, especially one in which the incumbent has recently
unveiled plans to
introduce measures to tax American companies operating overseas.
Instead the spark comes in the form the world’s most
populous nation: China.
Beijing too has suffered from the global
downturn, with America’s
problems damaging trade between the two nations as Washington began its retreat. Only in the
latter half of 2011 did China engage with the idea of an internal recession,
but immediately sought positive solutions. And like a great deal of Chinese
problem solving, the blossoming relationship with Ireland is one that is to be
viewed in the long term.
China is
again booming at the forefront of the global economy, with Beijing predicting imports to exceed $8
trillion by 2015. And Ireland
has not been slow to react, with existing bi-lateral trade between the two
countries recently having increased to $8.6 billion.
And when Chinese vice-president Xi Jinping visited the
country earlier in the week, the relationship between Ireland and China was broadcast on a global
scale.
350 delegates gathered at an Ireland-China forum in Dublin
on Monday, where Mr Jinping not only reiterated that the two nations would
continue to work closely to strengthen investment ties, but that Chinese
investment would become beneficial to Europe as a whole.
East-West tensions and suspicions go back far, but the
nature of the current recession allows for an easing of past uncertainties,
with even the United States
admitting that Beijing and Washington must work together to
reinvigorate global economics.
Progress can be made in such an environment, and not only
economically. Trade will indeed help to ease the pressures born from
unemployment, in turn injecting much-needed stimulus into Ireland’s bourgeoning
infrastructure of new motorways and airport redevelopment, but also allows the
Republic to escape the age-old roll and tumble contest with the United Kingdom.
By escaping from this stagnant state of conceived dependency on one hand and financial
intimidation on the other, Dublin can make a bold statement of its existence as
an international power in its own right.
But what about Ireland as an island? How can Northern Ireland
benefit from the promise shown in the south? This is a tricky issue, for Westminster can connect with Dublin’s
Chinese romance, and indeed the flattering – but no less inviting – attention
from America,
through the mutual medium of the Six Counties. But London
must realise that this Ireland
is confident, with Taoiseach Enda Kenny already planning great strides to the
East for a visit to Beijing
in March. When this is considered alongside the current preoccupation of
Scottish independence and the potential loss in capita faced in 2014,
Anglo-Irish relationships may just find themselves at an interesting and highly
potent crossroads.
The pressure is squarely on Dublin to do this properly. It must keep an
eye on its banks, ensure sound economic checks are in place and be firm, but
flexible, in its demeanour. On the one hand, Ireland must seize this chance to
reinvent itself. On the other, it must keep its head together and its eyes firmly
focused on its goals. Most importantly, it must learn from all the
implications, both positive and negative, stemming from the rise and the fall
of the Celtic Tiger, before it fuels the fires of the rapidly growing and
potentially powerful Celtic Dragon.
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